A scorecard in credit risk modelling is a statistical model used by lenders to evaluate the creditworthiness of potential borrowers. It helps in predicting the likelihood of whether a borrower will repay a loan or not. The scorecard is developed through the analysis of historical data on borrowers and their loan repayment behaviour. This model assigns scores to various attributes or characteristics of the borrower, such as income level, employment history, credit history, debts, and other financial indicators.
Start Free TrialFor example, a simple credit scorecard might assign points based on factors like:
Each factor is weighted differently depending on how predictive it is of future default. For instance, credit history and debt levels might be weighted more heavily than new credit inquiries.
Lenders use credit scorecards to make lending decisions, set interest rates, and establish credit limits. They can be customized for different types of credit products and for specific risk appetites of the lender. Credit scorecards are a critical tool in the financial industry for managing credit risk, ensuring responsible lending, and helping consumers access credit.
This process outlines the creation of a logistic regression-based credit scorecard, a common method used in the industry.
Steps | Description | Input | Output | Example |
1. Define Objective | Establish the goal of the scorecard. | Business requirements | Objective statement | Objective: To predict the likelihood of a borrower defaulting on a loan within the next 12 months. |
2. Collect Data | Gather historical data on borrowers. | Loan applications, repayment records, demographic information | Raw data set | Data on atleast 10,000 loan applications, including age, income, existing debt, repayment history. |
3. Clean Data | Prepare and clean the data for analysis. | Raw data set | Cleaned data set | Removed records with missing values in critical fields, corrected erroneous entries. |
4. Feature Selection | Identify relevant variables for the scorecard. | Cleaned data set | List of selected features | Selected features: Age, Income, Debt-to-Income Ratio, Number of Late Payments in the past year. |
5. Data Splitting | Split the data into training and validation sets. | Cleaned data set | Training and validation data sets | 70% of data allocated for training, 30% for validation. |
6. Model Development | Develop the statistical model. | Training data set | Developed model | Logistic regression model developed using selected features. |
7. Model Validation | Validate the model on a separate data set. | Validation data set | Validation results | Model accuracy and performance metrics evaluated on the validation set. |
8. Score Calculation | Calculate scores for each borrower. | Developed model, borrower data | Scores | Each borrower assigned a score from 300 to 850 based on their likelihood of default. |
9. Scorecard Calibration | Adjust and calibrate the scorecard. | Scores, model performance data | Calibrated scorecard | Adjustments made to score cutoffs and weights to improve prediction accuracy and meet business objectives. |
10. Implementation & Monitoring | Implement the scorecard and monitor its performance. | Calibrated scorecard, ongoing borrower data | Performance reports | Scorecard implemented in loan decision process, regularly monitored for accuracy, and updated as necessary. |
There are primarily 2 types of credit scorecards:
A table summarizing the main types of credit scorecards, such as Application, Behavioural, and Collection scorecards is a follows:
Type | Purpose | Data Input | Typical Output | Example |
Application Scorecard | To assess the risk of a new applicant and decide whether to grant credit. | Applicant’s credit history, income, employment details, debts, and other financial information. | A score that predicts the likelihood of the applicant defaulting on the loan. | An applicant with a stable job and a good credit history might receive a high score, indicating a low risk of default. |
Behavioural Scorecard | To monitor existing customers’ credit usage and behaviour over time to adjust credit limits and terms. |
Account performance data, including payment history, credit utilization, account balances, and changes in financial status. |
A score reflecting the current credit risk posed by the customer, based on their credit behaviour. | A customer who consistently pays on time and keeps balances low may have a high behavioural score, suggesting they are a low risk for future credit. |
Collection Scorecard | To prioritize and manage delinquent accounts effectively by assessing the likelihood of repayment. | Information on overdue payments, account age, historical payment behavior, and customer communication responses. |
A score indicating the probability of recovering the owed amount from a delinquent account. | An account with a high collection score indicates a higher likelihood of successful collection based on factors like previous partial payments or responsive communication. |
Roopya helps develop credit scorecards in several ways, primarily through its Credit risk analytics solutions. Here’s how:
Data-driven Approach:
Credit Risk Analytics Solutions:
Additional Benefits:
Overall, Roopya provides a comprehensive suite of tools and expertise to help lenders develop robust and efficient credit scorecards, leading to better risk management and financial inclusion.